Forecast the stock market for tomorrow, Monday, October 26, 2026, shows that the stock market may, at the start of trading, face conditions more balanced than today's; of course, this likelihood depends on no unexpected event occurring in the hours remaining until trading begins and on political risks not increasing.
The Tehran Stock Exchange was still under selling pressure at the end of Sunday's trading, but the intensity of the main index's fall in the closing minutes was not such that one could speak of a heavy wave of supply taking shape. In such conditions, traders are expected to operate with greater caution on Monday and the market to distance itself from sharp fluctuations in either direction.
The main index of the stock exchange, at the end of today's trading, with a decrease of 29,129 points equivalent to 0.36 percent, stood at 8,015,000 points.
Tomorrow's stock market forecast; the likelihood of a balanced market with cautious traders
The behavior of the indices in today's trading showed that the stock market has not yet been freed from selling pressure, but at the same time, demand has at times been able to change the course of trading. The main index fell by more than 50,000 points at the start of the day and came down to the 7,994,000-point range; however, most of this decrease was later recovered and the index even advanced into positive territory. The renewed return of selling pressure later in trading and the negative effect of the reopening of the Shatran, Shepna, and Shasta tickers finally took the main index to the end of the day with a drop of 29,129 points and a decrease of 0.36 percent.
This notable back-and-forth shows that in current conditions, neither do buyers have enough power to maintain an upward trend, nor can sellers increase supply pressure uniformly throughout all trading hours. For this reason, in forecasting tomorrow's stock market, a scenario of fluctuation within a balanced range can be considered likely; a scenario in which the market may at times be accompanied by increased demand, yet still face obstacles to strong growth.
The risk of a new war breaking out
One of the important factors in the recent fluctuations of the stock market is traders' concern about the possibility of a confrontation between Iran and the United States and Israel. The possibility of a fresh military conflict is among the risks that can affect companies' business outlook, economic conditions, and investors' expectations. For this reason, even in the absence of a definite event, rising political concerns can cause some shareholders to prefer to trade with greater caution or to refrain from taking on new risk.
Of course, the possibility of a military conflict beginning in the coming hours or days is not certain, and one cannot draw conclusions merely on the basis of speculation about its occurrence. Nevertheless, what is seen in market trading shows that political concerns play a role in traders' decision-making, and this very matter can prevent the formation of strong and stable demand.
As a result, the course of the stock market on Monday will depend to a large extent on political news and developments. If conditions do not change noticeably in the coming hours and no fresh worrying news is published, part of the psychological pressure prevailing over the market may ease and trading may proceed more balanced than on Sunday. Conversely, a sudden increase in political risks can change this scenario and once again put sellers in the superior position.
What message does the outflow of retail money hold for tomorrow's trading?
Today's trading statistics also tell of continued caution among investors. The net flow of money in shares, preemptive rights, and equity funds reached negative 2,657 billion tomans. Also, the per-capita buying of retail investors was 87 million tomans and per-capita selling 128 million tomans, and a negative buying power of 1.47 was recorded. These figures show that in overall trading, sellers had the upper hand in per-capita terms and the outflow of money from shares continues.
On the other hand, the number of negative tickers in the market reached 470, while 380 tickers were traded in positive territory. The number of sell queues, at 245, was also greater than the 200 buy queues. This situation shows that the intraday recovery of the main index during today's trading did not mean a uniform improvement in the state of the tickers.
At the same time, the value of buy orders reached 7,339 billion tomans, which was more than the 7,119 billion toman value of sell orders. The net of orders was recorded at about 220 billion tomans in favor of buyers. The value of trades also reached 45,786 billion tomans and the trading volume was 84 billion shares. These data tell of the existence of demand in the market, but the outflow of retail money and the superiority of per-capita selling show that one cannot yet be confident of a strong return of buyers.
The set of today's trading statistics is more consistent with a cautious and balanced market scenario than with the formation of a powerful upward trend or a heavy, uniform decline. Traders are still assessing the risks ahead, and until political ambiguities decrease, they may refrain from entering trades on a large scale.
Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad
