Vahid Hatemi writes in EghtesadNews: The gold, coin, and currency market begins trading today (Sunday, October 25, 2026) while Saturday, the first trading day of Aban, faced a wave of price decreases contrary to the record-breaking figures at the end of Mehr. The free market dollar retreated from the 272,000 tomans channel, opening at 268,960 tomans, and 18-karat gold, melted gold, and all coin denominations also began trading with significant negative gaps.
The most important factor behind this retreat was the simultaneous decline in the dollar rate and global gold ounce. Global gold lost the $4,000 threshold in Friday's trading, pulling back to the $3,996 range. This occurred while intensifying regional tensions pushed Brent crude oil prices to $116.72; however, rising inflationary concerns and the likelihood of sustained high US interest rates intensified selling pressure on gold.
In the domestic market, the continued supply of government currency through agent banks, market maker management of fluctuations, and restrictions imposed on Tether transactions were other influential factors on market sentiment. The restriction of Tether-to-toman trading from 23:30 to 11:30 the following day and the hidden price charts in some cryptocurrency exchanges limited traders' access to real-time price trends. Simultaneously, the adjustment of demand following the end-of-Mehr surge fueled the currency rate retreat.
Nevertheless, the price drop in Saturday's trading did not mean the end of bullish expectations. The persistence of political uncertainties, developments in the global gold market, and the market maker's currency policies continue to influence trader behavior. Therefore, the market is in a sensitive position at the start of Sunday's trading, with participants eyeing the sustainability of support levels, the volume of currency supply, and political news. Saturday's Dollar Price; Opening with a 3,620-Toman Negative Gap and Rising to 269,480 Tomans: On Saturday, the dollar opened trading with a negative gap of 3,620 tomans at the rate of 268,960 tomans, and with the entry of limited demand, climbed upward to 269,480 tomans. Thus, the dollar registered a 3,100-toman drop compared to the close of Thursday's trading. Saturday's Gold and Coin Market; Heavy Price Drop and Partial Recovery of Initial Losses: On Saturday, October 24, the first trading day of the month, the gold and coin market also faced a significant price drop influenced by the simultaneous decline of the free dollar and the global gold ounce (at the close of the global weekend). The dollar's retreat from its historical peak and the global ounce's drop below the psychological threshold of $4,000 caused 18-karat gold, melted gold, and all coin denominations to open with heavy negative gaps, losing a portion of their end-of-Mehr growth.
However, during the continuation of Saturday's trading, 18-karat gold, melted gold, and Imami coin managed to recover part of their initial losses, but half-coins and quarter-coins remained on a downward trajectory. This situation indicated the persistence of trader caution and the relative dominance of selling pressure in the market.
Global gold also remained fixed in the $3,996 range on Saturday and Sunday due to the weekend closure of global markets. Consequently, in the absence of new global ounce fluctuations, the domestic gold and coin market at the start of Sunday's trading will be influenced above all by changes in the dollar rate, supply and demand levels, and political developments. Saturday's 18-Karat Gold Price: On Saturday, 18-karat gold started trading with a negative gap of 1,015,000 tomans at the rate of 26,125,000 tomans, subsequently rising to 26,247,000 tomans, and finally closing at 26,194,000 tomans. By the close, gold registered a 947,000-toman decrease compared to Thursday's final price. Saturday's Melted Gold Price; Negative Gap of 4.4 Million Tomans: Melted gold also opened trading with a negative gap of 4,400,000 tomans at 113,170,000 tomans, rising with limited price increases to 113,700,000 tomans, and ultimately closing at 113,470,000 tomans. Saturday's Imami Coin Price; Drop of 6.7 Million Tomans Compared to Thursday: Additionally, Imami coin started trading with a negative gap of 7,300,000 tomans at 266,300,000 tomans, rising to 267,300,000 tomans, and settling at 266,900,000 tomans at the close of trading. Thus, the coin dropped by 6,700,000 tomans compared to Thursday's closing price. Conflicting Political and Economic Signals to the Currency and Gold Markets; Where Are the Dollar and Coin Headed on Sunday? The gold, coin, and currency market welcomes Sunday's trading while Saturday's political and economic developments sent conflicting signals to traders. Increased concerns about Persian Gulf security, the possibility of intensifying regional conflicts, and the ongoing tension between Iran and the US have kept political risks high. Conversely, the release of certain diplomatic stances and the central bank's continued management of the currency market could exert a downward effect on traders' bullish expectations.
In the political arena, the reduction of US personnel in some regional embassies and security warnings regarding Middle Eastern conditions once again heightened concerns over escalating tensions. Simultaneously, ongoing threats against shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz and potential energy supply disruptions pushed Brent crude oil prices to the $117 range at Friday's market close. However, contrary to normal expectations, the oil surge did not lead to a rise in global gold, as inflationary concerns and the likelihood of persistent high US interest rates intensified selling pressure on the ounce.
Conversely, Masoud Pezeshkian's remarks regarding the necessity of renewed efforts to reach an agreement and statements concerning Tehran's readiness to resume negotiations mediated by Pakistan showed glimpses of a continuing diplomatic path. Although no new agreement has been reached yet, analysts believe that the release of positive news from negotiations could reduce precautionary currency demand, while the intensification of military threats would increase the likelihood of buyers returning to the dollar and gold markets.
In the economic sector, the continued supply of government currency through agent banks, the foreign exchange procurement program for imports, and fluctuation management by the market maker are among the factors affecting Sunday's trading. At the same time, restrictions on Tether-to-toman trading from 23:30 to 11:30 the next day and the lack of price chart displays on some crypto exchanges have limited the ability to monitor the market in real-time. Nevertheless, the continuation of the actual currency supply and the volume of trader demand will play a more important role in determining the dollar's path.
On the other hand, the approaching Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28 and the release of US inflation data continue to cast a shadow over the outlook for global gold. Given the closure of global markets on Sunday and the ounce remaining stable around $3,996, domestic dollar fluctuations will be the most decisive factor for gold and coin prices.
Overall, Sunday's market is caught between downward pressure from currency supply and price retreats on one side, and political and security risks on the other. The continuation of market maker management and the absence of fresh political shocks could pave the way for prices to stabilize at lower ranges; however, the release of negative news regarding regional developments or negotiations would increase the probability of a reversal in expectations and a return of precautionary demand. Tether Price in the Past 24 Hours: The Tether price traded between 266,400 tomans and 272,700 tomans over the past 24 hours. Dollar Price in Off-Line/After-Hours Trading: The dollar was priced at 268,120 tomans in its last after-hours trade. Sunday's Gold and Coin Prices in After-Hours Trading; Continuing Downward Trend in the Market: Prices in the gold and coin market continued on a downward trajectory in after-hours trading; according to rates from the Tehran Gold and Jewelers Union website at 02:05 AM on Sunday, 18-karat gold was priced at 25,592,000 tomans and melted gold at 110,860,000 tomans. Imami coin was also priced at 261,500,000 tomans. Gold and Coin Market at 02:05 AM Sunday: The gold, coin, and currency market welcomes Sunday's trading while a heavy price retreat on the first trading day of the month and persistent selling pressure in after-hours trades have reinforced bearish expectations. According to market analysts, the direction of Sunday's trading depends above all on the dollar's behavior around the 268,000 tomans range, the continuation of currency supply by the market maker, and regional political developments. Conversely, the closure of global markets and the stability of gold around $3,996 have made domestic currency fluctuations more prominent in determining gold and coin prices. However, experts emphasize that price corrections following the end-of-Mehr surges do not necessarily mean the end of bullish expectations, and the market remains exposed to trend reversals driven by political news. Dollar Price Forecast; Battle in the 268,000 Tomans Channel: Currency market analysts believe the 268,000 to 267,000 tomans range will be the first major support zone for the dollar in Sunday's trading. The retreat of the dollar rate in after-hours trading to 268,120 tomans indicates that selling pressure persists, and if currency supply through agent banks, market maker management, and reduced precautionary demand continue, there is a possibility of testing lower supports. In the event of a valid break below the 267,000 tomans range, the next support lies in the 265,000 to 266,000 tomans band. According to experts, price stabilization at these levels will require continued currency supply and the absence of new political shocks.
Conversely, the dollar's first resistance is estimated in the 269,500 to 270,000 tomans range; a sustained breakthrough could pave the way for prices to return to the more important resistance of 272,000 to 273,000 tomans. Analysts believe that escalating regional tensions, the release of negative political news, or increased precautionary demand could reactivate buyers. However, the ongoing supply of government currency, restrictions on nocturnal Tether trading, and currency market fluctuation management are among factors limiting price growth. Therefore, until the dollar can stabilize above the 270,000 tomans threshold, the scenario of limited fluctuation with a corrective bias remains viable. 18-Karat Gold Price Forecast; The 25 Million Tomans Threshold in the Spotlight: In the gold market, analysts assess the 25,500,000 to 25,600,000 tomans range as the first major support zone for 18-karat gold in Sunday's trading. The pricing of 25,592,000 tomans at 02:05 AM on Sunday indicates that gold has faced fresh selling pressure compared to Saturday's closing rate of 26,194,000 tomans. Should initial support break, the price risks retreating to the 25,000,000 to 25,200,000 tomans range. Experts believe that the closure of the global gold market on Sunday makes changes in the dollar rate and the intensity of domestic supply and demand the most critical determinants for 18-karat gold's short-term path.
In the bullish scenario, 18-karat gold's first resistance lies in the 25,900,000 to 26,000,000 tomans range, and breaking through it can clear the path for price movement toward the more vital resistance of 26,200,000 to 26,500,000 tomans. According to analysts, the dollar's return to the 270,000 tomans channel or increased investment demand could pave the way to recover part of gold's price drop. Nevertheless, as long as the global ounce remains unchanged around $3,996 and the domestic exchange rate fails to register sustained growth, the prevalence of limited fluctuations and corrective pressure on the gold market is more likely. Imami Coin Price Forecast; Will the 260 Million Tomans Support Be Broken? In the coin market, analysts view the 260,000,000 to 262,000,000 tomans range as the first key support zone for Imami coin in Sunday's trading. The coin, which ended Saturday's trading at 266,900,000 tomans, retreated to the 261,500,000 tomans range in Sunday dawn pricing—a drop signaling continued selling pressure. According to experts, if the 260,000,000 tomans threshold is lost, the next support can be examined in the 257,000,000 to 258,000,000 tomans range. Lower dollar rates, a drop in the coin's intrinsic value, and the potential emptying of a portion of its bubble are among the key factors that could intensify downward pressure.
Conversely, Imami coin's first resistance is situated in the 264,000,000 to 266,000,000 tomans range, and a sustained breach of this zone could open the way for prices to return to the 269,000,000 to 270,000,000 tomans range. A more significant resistance is also evaluated in the 272,000,000 to 273,000,000 tomans band. Analysts believe the return of precautionary demand following intensified political tensions or renewed dollar growth could provide the ground for a coin trend reversal; however, if currency supply continues and selling pressure holds, the market will likely fluctuate in the lower half of the aforementioned ranges. Overall, the direction of Sunday's trading depends on the dollar's behavior at the 267,000 to 268,000 tomans support and buyers' reaction to recent declines.
Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad
