Bloomberg wrote: The Middle East war that Donald Trump, the president of the United States, had said would end within a few weeks is now, as it enters its eighth month, on the verge of escalation.

The report continued: Trump has repeatedly hinted that US forces in the Middle East will resume attacks on Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3. The US president had earlier dispatched a third aircraft carrier strike group and another 10,000 sailors and Marines toward the Persian Gulf so that, if hostilities resume, American commanders will have more options at their disposal.

Pete Hegseth, the US secretary of defense, also traveled to Israel this week on an unannounced visit; Israel is the country that began the war against Iran alongside the United States. During the trip, Hegseth met with Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, just days before Netanyahu's sensitive re-election contest. Reports indicate that the number of forces stationed at US bases in the Middle East, which sustained heavy damage in Iran's retaliatory attacks, has been reduced.

This week, the US State Department ordered a number of diplomats and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia, a move that came after the conflict spread to Saudi Arabia by the Iran-backed Houthis. With their drones and missiles, the Houthis have heavily targeted Riyadh airport and energy facilities, leaving dozens dead and hundreds wounded.

Iran Is Preparing

In such circumstances, Iran is preparing for a fresh round of US bombardments around the midterm elections and is gearing up to respond across the Middle East, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates. This was stated by a person familiar with the views of officials in Tehran.

According to this source, the period between the US elections and the new Congress taking office in early January will be the most difficult period. He added that the only way out of the current conflict is reaching an agreement that allows both sides to claim they have won. The person did not want to be named because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

According to a person familiar with the views of the government of the United Arab Emirates, some officials in Persian Gulf countries are quite confident that the violence will resume and are worried that the new fighting will be even more severe than the period before the war stopped.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Trump said in a similar tone: "We have really smashed them, and maybe we will do it a little more."

Meanwhile, shipping and maritime security officials say Iran is attacking more ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz than in earlier phases of the conflict, and inflicting more severe damage on them, because instead of attack drones, it is using guided missiles.

Asli Aydintasbas, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, said: "All the signs indicate that the war will resume and that an extensive bombing campaign lies ahead, although its exact timing remains unclear."

Trump's own remarks suggest that the attacks are unlikely to begin before the November 3 midterm elections. In these elections, his Republican Party faces the risk of losing one or both houses of Congress, a risk caused in part by rising fuel prices in the United States as a result of the war.

According to Ali Vaez, a Middle East expert at the International Crisis Group, a resumption of the war could help Netanyahu force his political rivals to form a national unity government. Military attacks could also allow Trump to present a powerful image of himself at home with a "spectacular" show of force.

Vaez said: "Trump and Netanyahu may both see war with Iran as a political escape route, but both accept the risk that a war meant to save their political positions could ultimately destroy them."

Netanyahu on the Eve of His Meeting with Trump, as US Efforts to Establish a Ceasefire in Gaza Intensify

US President Donald Trump, on the right, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, on Monday, September 29, 2025.

A senior European diplomat said the US and Israeli elections have complicated efforts to prevent a slide toward war, and other countries must step up their efforts to reach an agreement before it is too late.

Israel's tense elections will be held on Tuesday. These elections are the first since the Hamas attacks of 2023, attacks that paved the way for Netanyahu's wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

If Netanyahu loses the elections, his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, may not be as inclined as Netanyahu to resume the war with Iran at the start of his premiership.

Economic Concerns

In recent months, in addition to a strict naval blockade of Iran's ports, the White House has also intensified economic sanctions against Tehran's remaining trading partners.

Although the US sanctions campaign has been less effective than experts expected, the naval blockade is still having its real impact on Iran. However, the increased pressure may push Iran to carry out attacks across the Persian Gulf.

Bradley Bowman, a foreign policy and defense expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said: "The wise thing the president can do is to let the current strategy continue on its course."

Recent diplomatic efforts to end the war have failed. However, Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, this week called for a return to diplomatic negotiations.

Araghchi wrote in an article in the Financial Times: "Iran is ready to give diplomacy another chance, provided that we see solid evidence of America's sincere desire to achieve a fair and honorable solution that ends this conflict forever."

He added at the same time: "At present, there is little reason to expect progress."

The war, which Trump had initially said would end within a few weeks, was unpopular among Americans from the very beginning, and its situation has now grown worse.

According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted from September 28 to October 4, about two-thirds of Americans are dissatisfied with Trump's handling of the conflict with Iran, and almost half of them expect the war to continue for more than another year.

This conflict has disrupted the flow of energy transfers from the Persian Gulf and caused the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, to rise by more than 80 percent since the beginning of this year. This has driven gasoline prices in the United States up sharply and intensified concerns about the rising cost of living, concerns that have damaged Republicans' electoral prospects.

The US military has achieved some success in helping ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the oil price is rising again, because the attacks on Saudi Arabia have heightened fears of military escalation in the region.

Brent crude futures prices are also climbing, as traders try to assess whether the United States will escalate the war after the midterm elections.

Dina Esfandiary, Ziad Daoud and Becca Wasser, analysts at Bloomberg Economics, wrote in a report published on Thursday: "The Middle East situation looks worryingly similar to the state of the region before the war with Iran began in February." 

They added: "Of course, there are differences, including the approaching elections in America and Israel, widespread disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's tougher stance. However, these factors mean an increased likelihood of a resumption of hostilities, not a decrease."

Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad