Erm News reported: European diplomatic sources have revealed that Germany, France, and Britain have prepared a comprehensive initiative to be presented to Iran and the United States, to be implemented in two stages. The plan begins with a negotiated settlement of the Strait of Hormuz issue and the lifting of the blockade, and then proceeds to negotiations regarding a comprehensive nuclear agreement and the resolution of issues related to sanctions and frozen assets. The basis and reference for these negotiations will be the mechanisms and principles of the 2015 nuclear agreement.
According to Entekhab, the report continues: European diplomatic sources explained in an interview with Erm News that Paris, Berlin, and London are preparing this initiative to assume a guarantor role in the initial phase. This phase focuses on reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and partially lift the blockade against Iran.
The objective of this measure is to overcome the state of mutual distrust and examine the possibility of achieving "mutual concessions" in the form of a temporary and transitional deal.
Following the completion of this agreement, the initiative will enter its second stage; a stage that will include negotiations on reducing the level of uranium enrichment based on a specific timetable and applying international oversight to Iran's nuclear facilities. The facilities to be subjected to oversight will be determined by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Mutual Concessions in the Second Stage
According to the initial framework of this initiative, in return for Iran's actions, a portion of the sanctions will be lifted, and the blockade will be completely dismantled. These actions will be carried out within a mechanism formulated on the basis of the 2015 nuclear agreement—an agreement from which US President Donald Trump withdrew during his first term in office.
European Consultations
Diplomatic sources announced that the official release of this initiative depends on the results of European consultations with Washington and Tehran and securing the agreement of both parties to the general framework of the plan.
These developments come as German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul recently announced that Germany, France, and Britain are ready to negotiate with Iran to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons, at a time when signs of escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington are mounting in the coming days.
A French diplomatic source said that the European troika, as part of efforts to revive its role in the negotiations, is seeking realistic solutions to unresolved issues that have caused international economic and military tensions.
According to this source, Europe is a key partner in resolving the crisis of the nuclear dossier and intends to present a plan that includes imposing restrictions on uranium enrichment and establishing verification mechanisms in Iran's nuclear facilities; in return, sanctions would be eased and the issue of Iran's frozen assets resolved.
This French diplomat further told Erm News that Paris, Berlin, and London believe that the failure to reach a solution to the ongoing tensions since last February stems from the multiplicity of issues and disputes between Washington and Tehran.
According to him, this situation requires that the issues of the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade be removed from the scope of conflict, and that both parties enter into a negotiated mechanism regarding the core issue, namely the nuclear dossier, as soon as possible—a mechanism that provides a dynamic process for addressing all existing disputes in the negotiations.
Trump's Stance
On the other hand, a former advisor to the German parliamentary foreign relations committee explained that Trump will not accept any European initiative to intervene in the process of reaching an agreement with Tehran, because such an action would mean that by accepting Europe's role, he effectively admits he was wrong in exiting the 2018 nuclear agreement, overstepped in that path, and proved incapable of managing the Iran dossier. Furthermore, this perception would be reinforced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed him onto a path that harmed United States interests.
This former advisory source in the German parliament told Erm News that Trump does not want strong European mediation, as he views such mediation as a sign of weakness in his foreign policy—a weakness that could also impact the Ukraine war dossier and link the Iranian and Ukrainian dossiers together, potentially harming his understandings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), involved limiting the level of uranium enrichment to a maximum of 3.67 percent for 15 years and reducing the number of Natanz centrifuges to about 5,000 first-generation machines for 10 years.
In return, after the implementation of related commitments, a set of nuclear-related sanctions against Iran would be lifted or suspended to enable Tehran to conduct a portion of its international trade, financial, and oil transactions.
Upcoming Escalation of Tensions
Mohammed Abolenein, a strategic affairs researcher, believes that if this European initiative is implemented, its degree of success can be assessed based on the nature of diplomatic relations the three European countries maintain with Washington and Tehran, as well as their ability to influence US decision-making, particularly at a time when Washington has spoken of the possibility of moving toward escalation, either before or after the congressional midterm elections.
Abolenein told Erm News that if European efforts remain limited to traditional diplomacy, the crisis will remain in its current state. However, if this effort transforms into a coalition prepared to play a genuine role in the negotiations, it could have a positive impact on the course of developments and serve as a step forward to halt the escalation.
He added that in the event of such a measure, Europe would strive on one hand to facilitate negotiations with Iran on preventing the country from acquiring nuclear weapons, securing shipping lanes, and preventing escalation, and on the other hand, it does not want the instruments of escalation to remain solely in the hands of the United States, especially when other countries, including European nations, also suffer from the negative consequences of this confrontation, the most important of which is rising energy prices.
The researcher also noted that if Europeans succeed in establishing practical and realistic mechanisms upon entering this path, they may partially prevent the escalation of tensions that threaten to occur at any moment. Signs of this escalation include the visit of US War Secretary Pete Hegseth to Israel and the increase in the concentration and deployment of military forces in areas surrounding Iran.
Abolenein concluded by saying that translating Europe's diplomatic efforts into practical initiatives could create a barrier against escalating tensions; however, achieving this goal depends on the extent of Washington and Tehran's cooperation with these efforts and their willingness to accept diplomatic proposals that can prevent the resumption of confrontation and resolve contentious disputes through negotiation.
Source: Entekhab
